Showing posts with label primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label primary. Show all posts

Friday, August 7, 2015

The First GOP Debate: Thoughts and Analysis

The first debate was pretty much what it was expected to be. Ten men fought over the same three identities: the outsider and or rebel (Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Ben Carson), the smiling governor who vomits out statistics to "prove their record" (Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, John Kasich), and whatever Marco Rubio was trying to do.

The same ten men also fought over three policy positions: the same nebulous "true Reagan conservative" that Republicans have been ardently pursuing for the past thirty years, Rand Paul's libertarian-ish alternative (which shone especially bright on privacy, civil liberties, and foreign policy), and the absolute insanity of Donald Trump.

Considering most of the people on stage were pushing the same message, the talking times for the debate were unfairly distributed. Rand Paul, the most unique voice on stage, got the least speaking time. He arguably had the best exchange of the night with Chris Christie over metadata collection, privacy, and national security. While Christie trotted out the party line (citing 9/11 to justify ignoring the Bill of Rights fourteen years after the fact), Paul presented a fiery and passionate defense of the Fourth Amendment, which Christie called "a ridiculous answer".

Rand Paul performed admirably given the time constraints he faced. I imagine he will get a slight bump in the polls.

Ted Cruz remains the most polished rhetorician on stage, and had more charisma than half of the field put together. He continually tried to bridge the gap between his perceived "rebel" image and his actual campaign platform (a whole lotta war), and will probably get a slight bump in the polls.


My feelings on Ted Cruz in a nutshell.

John Kasich was bland, at best. I imagine the stadium was packed with whatever local supporters his campaign could trot out, explaining his few and minor cheeers (largely for talking about how cool Ohio is). He will probably fall in the polls.

Marco Rubio occupied a unique point in the debate, which worked to his advantage. Unlike fellow Senators Cruz and Paul, he's not trying to portray himself as a rebel. He's more of a moderate, bland but somewhat engaging to the point that people will at least pay attention. He also avoided the over-use of numbers and statistics (unlike the governors), which played to his advantage. He will probably get a slight bump.

I honestly forgot that Mike Huckabee was running until tonight, but the crowd seemed to like him well enough. He'll play the role of Santorum in 2012 (ultimately doomed evangelical). Based on the debate, I think he ran solely to blather on about the Fair Tax for the next five months. He'll probably slightly drop and hold fairly steady.

Scott Walker held himself decently, but didn't really differentiate himself on policy. He reminds me a lot of Tim Pawlenty in 2011, the "aw-shucks" Midwestern governor who is crushingly normal, which Walker kept insisting he was. He'll probably hold steady.

Jeb Bush was surprisingly solid. Granted, he was lying through his teeth about his record and his stance on issues such as Common Core, but his remarks were clearly well-rehearsed. He'll probably get a slight bump.

Chris Christie's campaign imploded on stage. He insisted on clinging to citing innumerable facts and figures about his record in New Jersey, to his own detriment. His heated exchange with Rand Paul made him come off as a reactionary fool, still using 9/11 as political fuel to advance whatever he thinks will "protect" America. I expect him to drop out of the top ten within a few weeks.

Ben Carson has the most roundabout way of speaking of anybody I've ever seen on a debate stage. He seems to have a tenuous (at best) grasp on most issues, and toes the party line. However, he toes the line in the most rambling way possible, so I couldn't really tell where he was going with anything he was saying. He also insists on introducing his "proportional" tax plan with a lengthy justification as it being "God's tax plan", which I still don't fully understand. Somehow, the crowd liked him. He'll probably hold steady.

Donald Trump, the current frontrunner, was like a drunken conductor driving a train off of a bridge. I couldn't look away. This is the first time I've ever really seen him talk for an extended period of time, and he was either insane or moderately drunk while on stage. He starts off by already threatening a third-party run (and is called out immediately by Paul), and then cites word of mouth from a border agent as proof for his outrageous claim that the Mexican government is deliberately sending criminals to America.

Everything Trump said was incomprehensible, at best, and crazy at worst. The crowd was fairly divided between constantly appluading and constantly booing him every time he spoke. I'd be shocked if he didn't fall in the next round of polling.

And we have to sit through ten more of these things.

Sunday, August 2, 2015

The Limits of Polling

In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Donald Trump leads by 20 points. Four years ago, Rick Perry surged ahead in the polls, and stayed there for months, until he managed to forget his own platform on the debate stage. By October, Herman Cain began his surge in the polls, followed soon after by Newt Gingrich.

Perry, Cain, and Ginrich all failed to secure the nomination, even though early polling data suggested otherwise. They did not fail due to some outrageous gaffe or scandal, but rather due to flaws in their campaign strategies, platforms, and personalities that were already there to begin with.

Sudden shifts in polling data mean little to nothing early on. Right now, the earliest chance to earn delegates is the Iowa Caucuses, which would take place at the very earliest in January 2016. Five months is a long time in a presidential primary.

The reason Trump is surging in the polls is simple. He appeals strongly to low information voters, those who like someone who "tells it like it is" or has a bombastic rhetoric that grabs attention. Get a few talking heads to drop his name and show a few clips, and you can shore up support in a matter of weeks.

A fast rising flame is the first to fall. The campaign strategy of quick and dirty surges is significantly less effective than trying to build a genuine support base, a stable fundraising infrastructure, and a cohesive long-term strategy at a national level.

Donald Trump is a man of little substance, prone to outrageous and insane statements, and will likely drop out before ever reaching a primary.

Within a few months, there will be a second Donald Trump: someone who dramatically rises in the polls due to a slight shift in public opinion. It will continue happening up until the primaries actually start, and it will be just as meaningless.