The Changing Fortunes of Chris Christie

Two years ago, Chris Christie topped a Rasmussen survey of likely Presidential candidates at 21%  (with Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Rand Paul close behind.) Bush, Rubio, and Paul remain well positioned, but Christie's star has fallen. A recent poll shows him tied in New Hampshire -- for tenth place.

Christie was once a Republican star on the rise. After sitting out in 2012, he was widely considered a potential frontrunner in 2016. Though it's far too early to say anything for sure, Christie's slide in the polls does not bode well. Originally rising to prominence from boisterous town hall videos filmed during his successful campaign for Governor of New Jersey, Christie was billed as a hardline conservative and a party outsider. Since then, Christie has since fallen squarely in the establishment camp.

The cracks in his conservative facade began to show as early as 2011, when he endorsed Mitt Romney before the primary season began. Romney was widely perceived as too moderate for many Republicans, and his primary opponents all scrambled to get to the right of him. Christie's early and strong support for Romney confirmed which team he was truly on. Later scandals, like the imfamous Bridgegate, led many former supporters of Christie to seek greener pastures. 

In the first debate, Christie laid out the case for his candidacy based on his "proven record" as governor, a fairly safe and reasonable strategy. So safe and reasonable that Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Scott Walker, and Mike Huckabee all said the same thing. Failing to distinguish himself from the pack with his record, Christie has resorted to blind attacks to keep his name in the news, like his fierce condemnation of Rand Paul and the Fourth Amendment.

Christie used to be seen as the straight-talking "take action" Governor who wasn't afraid to speak his mind. Regardless of how accurate that perception was, he's now seen as a duplicitous, corrupt political insider, who will say whatever he thinks will get him elected. That said, Christie retains support from some big donors, and may stick around despite his sliding numbers. For now, he's merely down, and not out.

Regardless, a slip from first to tenth is far from insignificant. Christie has a lot of ground to cover, and a lot of voters to convince, if he wants to stand a chance at the nomination.

The First GOP Debate: Thoughts and Analysis

The first debate was pretty much what it was expected to be. Ten men fought over the same three identities: the outsider and or rebel (Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Ben Carson), the smiling governor who vomits out statistics to "prove their record" (Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, John Kasich), and whatever Marco Rubio was trying to do.

The same ten men also fought over three policy positions: the same nebulous "true Reagan conservative" that Republicans have been ardently pursuing for the past thirty years, Rand Paul's libertarian-ish alternative (which shone especially bright on privacy, civil liberties, and foreign policy), and the absolute insanity of Donald Trump.

Considering most of the people on stage were pushing the same message, the talking times for the debate were unfairly distributed. Rand Paul, the most unique voice on stage, got the least speaking time. He arguably had the best exchange of the night with Chris Christie over metadata collection, privacy, and national security. While Christie trotted out the party line (citing 9/11 to justify ignoring the Bill of Rights fourteen years after the fact), Paul presented a fiery and passionate defense of the Fourth Amendment, which Christie called "a ridiculous answer".

Rand Paul performed admirably given the time constraints he faced. I imagine he will get a slight bump in the polls.

Ted Cruz remains the most polished rhetorician on stage, and had more charisma than half of the field put together. He continually tried to bridge the gap between his perceived "rebel" image and his actual campaign platform (a whole lotta war), and will probably get a slight bump in the polls.

My feelings on Ted Cruz in a nutshell.

John Kasich was bland, at best. I imagine the stadium was packed with whatever local supporters his campaign could trot out, explaining his few and minor cheeers (largely for talking about how cool Ohio is). He will probably fall in the polls.

Marco Rubio occupied a unique point in the debate, which worked to his advantage. Unlike fellow Senators Cruz and Paul, he's not trying to portray himself as a rebel. He's more of a moderate, bland but somewhat engaging to the point that people will at least pay attention. He also avoided the over-use of numbers and statistics (unlike the governors), which played to his advantage. He will probably get a slight bump.

I honestly forgot that Mike Huckabee was running until tonight, but the crowd seemed to like him well enough. He'll play the role of Santorum in 2012 (ultimately doomed evangelical). Based on the debate, I think he ran solely to blather on about the Fair Tax for the next five months. He'll probably slightly drop and hold fairly steady.

Scott Walker held himself decently, but didn't really differentiate himself on policy. He reminds me a lot of Tim Pawlenty in 2011, the "aw-shucks" Midwestern governor who is crushingly normal, which Walker kept insisting he was. He'll probably hold steady.

Jeb Bush was surprisingly solid. Granted, he was lying through his teeth about his record and his stance on issues such as Common Core, but his remarks were clearly well-rehearsed. He'll probably get a slight bump.

Chris Christie's campaign imploded on stage. He insisted on clinging to citing innumerable facts and figures about his record in New Jersey, to his own detriment. His heated exchange with Rand Paul made him come off as a reactionary fool, still using 9/11 as political fuel to advance whatever he thinks will "protect" America. I expect him to drop out of the top ten within a few weeks.

Ben Carson has the most roundabout way of speaking of anybody I've ever seen on a debate stage. He seems to have a tenuous (at best) grasp on most issues, and toes the party line. However, he toes the line in the most rambling way possible, so I couldn't really tell where he was going with anything he was saying. He also insists on introducing his "proportional" tax plan with a lengthy justification as it being "God's tax plan", which I still don't fully understand. Somehow, the crowd liked him. He'll probably hold steady.

Donald Trump, the current frontrunner, was like a drunken conductor driving a train off of a bridge. I couldn't look away. This is the first time I've ever really seen him talk for an extended period of time, and he was either insane or moderately drunk while on stage. He starts off by already threatening a third-party run (and is called out immediately by Paul), and then cites word of mouth from a border agent as proof for his outrageous claim that the Mexican government is deliberately sending criminals to America.

Everything Trump said was incomprehensible, at best, and crazy at worst. The crowd was fairly divided between constantly appluading and constantly booing him every time he spoke. I'd be shocked if he didn't fall in the next round of polling.

And we have to sit through ten more of these things.

First (Real) GOP Debate LIVE

Some slightly more in-depth than Twitter thoughts during the debate.

• Donald Trump has continued his long-standing tradition of outlandish and insane statements. The crowd was strongly divided between constantly booing and applauding. 
• Chris Christie's strategy seems to be vomiting up as many statistics as possibly and hoping they sound impressive.
• I'm actually impressed so far with the quality of the questions coming from the moderators. Theyr'e fairly hard hitting. More so than I thought they would be, at least.
• So far, Rand Paul has only spoken twice. Coincidence? I think not. 
• Marco Rubio so far has made the most coherent statement about the problems of immigration policy, but like everybody else doesn't actually detail any reforms. 
• Ted Cruz desperately trying to bridge the gap between his "rebel" image and his "reasonable conservative" image, like some kind of weird hybrid between Scott Walker and Rand Paul. 
• The exchange between Christie and Paul lit the stage on fire. Christie relied almost entirely on emotional arguments (based on 9/11) to try to justify violating the Fourth Amendment, while Paul set up a fiery defense of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.
• Everyone is jumping over themselves to change the subject to whatever quip they thought of the day before (looking at you, Scott Walker). 
• Jeb Bush can't seem to get out of the shadow of Common Core, no matter how much he tries to slip out of it. 
• Ben Carson continues to push a flat tax, but spends 45 seconds introducing it under the pretext of it being "God's tax plan" for some mysterious reason. 
• It genuinely frightens me that everyone cheering for Donald Trump can vote. 
• I wonder if fifty years from now Republicans will still blindly cite Ronald Reagan as a justification for anything they do. 
• This stage needs about five less people on it. 
• Ben Carson has the most long-winded answers of any person I've ever seen in a debate.
  

I give up. I'll summarize something later. 

Thoughts on Voters First Presidential Forum

The first quasi-debate for the increasingly crowded Republican field was held today. Some stray thoughts.

• Many candidates struggled to differentiate themselves sufficiently from the rest of the field. Whether it was Chris Christie trying to outhawk Lindsey Graham, or every governor trying to cement themselves as THE fiscal hawk, most of the candidates blended together into a homogeneous mass. 
• Those that did manage to separate themselves in some meaningful way from the pack saw the most success of the night. Rand Paul's emphasis on privacy (and a decidedly more dove approach to foreign policy than anyone else on the stage) and Scott Walker's focus on labor reform are two examples. 
• Many in the GOP field (such as Rick Perry or Rick Santorum) remain nominally dedicated to government restraint and economic growth, but advocate policies directly opposed to these goals, such as a series of complicated economic incentives with the purpose of revitalizing American manufacturing, or dramatically expanding American military presence overseas. 
• Most of the candidates didn't have a particularly polished stage presence, but had instead focused on memorizing statistics and being able to vomit them out as quickly as possible. 
• It was interesting to see many issues that Rand Paul originally championed coming to the discussion, namely criminal justice reform and the drug war.
• Based on tonight's performance, I would rank George Pataki, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich in the bottom three. None of the three seemed to connect well with the audience and frequently got lost in the weeds of their own discussion points. 

A real debate is coming up on August 6, and is sure to be much more chaotic than tonight's relatively ordered affair. 

Voters First Presidential Forum: LIVE

It's that magical time of year again: the Presidential Primary. Where my blood pressure spikes and I love/hate my life. Today, starting at 7:00 PM, we have the first vaguely debate-like thing. The Voters First Presidential Forum. Yeehaw.

6:55 PM - This college is pretty nice.
6:56 PM - I wonder why New Hampshire doesn't move their primary to before the Iowa Caucuses, then they could get even more unwarranted attention
6:57 PM - They're really adamant about this no applause thing.
6:59 PM - Rick Perry is wearing the most garish tie I have ever seen. And he keeps licking his lips.
7:00 PM - Am I crazy or are half the candidates not there? And no, I don't mean Trump and Huckabee.
7:01 PM - I feel bad for everyone just standing there, staring at the crowd, with nothing to do.
7:02 PM - I love that Rubio, Cruz, and Paul are off in their little satellite room, like they're in a time out.
7:03 PM - Oh sure, I'm sure it was drawn "randomly". Whatever you say, buddy.
People still care about immigration? This ought to be good.
7:04 PM - Rick Perry is up first. I feel like he got a speaking coach, I can actually understand what he's saying now, unlike the last time around.
7:05 PM - I think Rick Perry just came out in support of drone-defended borders.
7:06 PM - Rick Perry comparing visas to UPS, refuses to take stance on them.
7:07 PM - How does an economy have a "2% GDP"? Somehow Rick Perry made an economic question about education reform. "Regulations that drive the income tax down?"
7:08 PM - Rick Santorum rambling about "support" versus subsidies.
7:09 PM - He has now come out in support of higher taxes than Rand Paul, for some reason.
7:11 PM - The only way to create jobs, according to Santorum, is targeted tax breaks and increased manufacturing.
7:12 PM - Rick Santorum takes a parting blow at Mitt Romney. Four years too late.
7:13 PM - John Kasich comes out softer on immigration reform than both Perry and Santorum. Not firebranding it up.
7:14 PM - Kasich comes out in favor of a balanced budget, cites role in Ohio.
7:16 PM - Oh, and he also wrote the entire budget. Six times.
7:17 PM - Graham plans to "push back" against China, unfair trade practices. Comes out EXTREMELY hawkish, no surprise there.
7:18 PM - Wants to fight radical Islam with "whatever it takes" (Including trillions of dollars?)
7:19 PM - We're still riding on Reagan, apparently.
7:20 PM - He sees threats, everywhere. Needs more troops (despite America having more than anyone else in the world.)
7:21 PM - Chris Christie has lost a lot of weight. And gained a lot of war featheres.
7:22 PM - Christie comes out in support of raising the retirement age, advocates having "a plan"
7:23 PM - I think Christie wants to end the VA.
7:24 PM - I think I just see dollar signs pouring out of Christie's mouth every time he speaks.
Sees solution to drug war as more treatment, not an end to mandatory minimums.
7:25 PM - Ben Carson is sixth. I originally said fifth, but that's only because I forgot about Kasich.
7:26 PM - He sounds like he's constantly out of breath.
7:27 PM - He's mostly telling stories without any kind of policy proposals.
7:28 PM - And mostly entirely talking about health care. First laugh of the night by calling bureaucrats stupid.
7:29 PM - Comes out against Planned Parenthood funding.
7:30 PM - Cites God in his tax plan. Jeb Bush pops up.
7:31 PM - Jeb Bush currently trying to out-hawk Lindsey Graham, says America is not safe because of "tweets". Cites support for "strategy".
7:32 PM - Jeb Bush thinks engaging with the world solely involves air and military power.
7:33 PM - 2% growth is "anemic" according to Bush. Need "secure world" to grow economy, which can obviously only be accomplished through overseas adventurism.
7:34 PM - Heh, Bush just got cut the heck off. Carly Fiorina is up, advocates preserving the "status crow"
7:36 PM - I'm pretty sure she's just copying some weird combination of Jeb Bush and Rick Perry. Advocates spending less money, than proposes spending more money.
7:38 PM - First Hillary Clinton character slam of the night. Is it sexist they waited for another woman?
7:39 PM - Bobby Jindal comes out against hyphens, credits Bernie Sanders for coming out as socialist, claims that Clinton and Obama are "just as bad".
7:40 PM - Comes out in support of "doing".
7:41 PM - Unlike some opponents, is a fan of "math".
7:42 PM - Supports arming troops as well.
7:44 PM - Scott Walker supports balanced plan between economy, environmental issues.
7:46 PM - Tax plan doesn't involve cutting taxes, but "putting them back" to the states.
7:47 PM - Focuses on his strength in education and labor reform.
7:48 PM - Seriously, does anyone else not remember who George Pataki is?
7:49 PM - Cites "Obamacare" as a federal agency.
7:50 PM - Pulls a Santorum, supports an increase in American manufacturing.
7:51 PM - Claims we have the "best workforce" in the world, which is why there are much less manufacturing jobs in the country?
7:52 PM - Hot damn, someone I care about is talking. #StandWithRand
7:53 PM - Rand Paul correctly notes you can engage with the world in a way that doesn't involve bombs.

This is exhausting. I'm going to Twitter.

https://twitter.com/TylerGroenendal