The Changing Fortunes of Chris Christie

Two years ago, Chris Christie topped a Rasmussen survey of likely Presidential candidates at 21%  (with Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Rand Paul close behind.) Bush, Rubio, and Paul remain well positioned, but Christie's star has fallen. A recent poll shows him tied in New Hampshire -- for tenth place.

Christie was once a Republican star on the rise. After sitting out in 2012, he was widely considered a potential frontrunner in 2016. Though it's far too early to say anything for sure, Christie's slide in the polls does not bode well. Originally rising to prominence from boisterous town hall videos filmed during his successful campaign for Governor of New Jersey, Christie was billed as a hardline conservative and a party outsider. Since then, Christie has since fallen squarely in the establishment camp.

The cracks in his conservative facade began to show as early as 2011, when he endorsed Mitt Romney before the primary season began. Romney was widely perceived as too moderate for many Republicans, and his primary opponents all scrambled to get to the right of him. Christie's early and strong support for Romney confirmed which team he was truly on. Later scandals, like the imfamous Bridgegate, led many former supporters of Christie to seek greener pastures. 

In the first debate, Christie laid out the case for his candidacy based on his "proven record" as governor, a fairly safe and reasonable strategy. So safe and reasonable that Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Scott Walker, and Mike Huckabee all said the same thing. Failing to distinguish himself from the pack with his record, Christie has resorted to blind attacks to keep his name in the news, like his fierce condemnation of Rand Paul and the Fourth Amendment.

Christie used to be seen as the straight-talking "take action" Governor who wasn't afraid to speak his mind. Regardless of how accurate that perception was, he's now seen as a duplicitous, corrupt political insider, who will say whatever he thinks will get him elected. That said, Christie retains support from some big donors, and may stick around despite his sliding numbers. For now, he's merely down, and not out.

Regardless, a slip from first to tenth is far from insignificant. Christie has a lot of ground to cover, and a lot of voters to convince, if he wants to stand a chance at the nomination.