Grassroots

Conventional wisdom holds that in order to win an election, you need money. A lot of money. In 2012, it cost an average of $1.6 million to get elected to the House of Representatives, and over $10 million to take a Senate seat. The amount of fundraising that has to be done in politics is mind-blowing.

There are two main sources of funding for political campaigns. The first is the easiest: self-funding. Candidates seeking office can simply loan as much of their own money as they like to their campaign committee. The second is campaign contributions from individuals, corporations, or political action committees (PACs).

In 2014, the Republican establishment relied heavily on money to win their targeted elections. In many cases, their strategy proved successful. There were a few instances, however, where it failed. The money was still there. The support structure from the establishment and the Chamber of Commerce was still there. What was different?

Grassroots support was the key factor to victory in elections where the favored (and heavily backed) candidate lost. One such victory was Congressman Justin Amash's victory over Chamber backed primary challenger Brian Ellis, whose campaign cited "overwhelming grassroots support" as the prime mover in victory.

It's a mistake to assume that enough money can guarantee a victory, even in a Presidential election. There has been much snickering over Rand Paul's low fundraising totals (he raised $7 million in the second quarter), especially compared to some of his more well-funded opponents. Paul may not have as much money, but he does have massive grassroots support.

Polls don't mean everything, especially this far away from the actual election. Rand Paul is building the slow burn of a Presidential campaign, deliberately but surely. He has rabidly enthusiastic support among many young liberty-minded Republicans (especially online), and has packed campaign events across the country. Voter turnout matters, and Paul's partisans will definitely show up on election day. Compared to some candidates like Rick Santorum, whose Iowa campaign stop in July had just one voter, Paul is in a very good position. People want to hear what he has to say, and they like it.

PACs may have the money, but they don't vote.