In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Donald Trump leads by 20 points. Four years ago, Rick Perry surged ahead in the polls, and stayed there for months, until he managed to forget his own platform on the debate stage. By October, Herman Cain began his surge in the polls, followed soon after by Newt Gingrich.
Perry, Cain, and Ginrich all failed to secure the nomination, even though early polling data suggested otherwise. They did not fail due to some outrageous gaffe or scandal, but rather due to flaws in their campaign strategies, platforms, and personalities that were already there to begin with.
Sudden shifts in polling data mean little to nothing early on. Right now, the earliest chance to earn delegates is the Iowa Caucuses, which would take place at the very earliest in January 2016. Five months is a long time in a presidential primary.
The reason Trump is surging in the polls is simple. He appeals strongly to low information voters, those who like someone who "tells it like it is" or has a bombastic rhetoric that grabs attention. Get a few talking heads to drop his name and show a few clips, and you can shore up support in a matter of weeks.
A fast rising flame is the first to fall. The campaign strategy of quick and dirty surges is significantly less effective than trying to build a genuine support base, a stable fundraising infrastructure, and a cohesive long-term strategy at a national level.
Donald Trump is a man of little substance, prone to outrageous and insane statements, and will likely drop out before ever reaching a primary.
Within a few months, there will be a second Donald Trump: someone who dramatically rises in the polls due to a slight shift in public opinion. It will continue happening up until the primaries actually start, and it will be just as meaningless.
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