The First to Go: Five Republicans Who Won't Make it to 2016

There are currently seventeen people vying for the Republican Presidential nomination. That may not seem like much, but compared to the five Democrats, it appears chaotic. Chances are good that many will drop out before ever seeing a primary. Of course, it's too early to say anything for sure. A lot can change in the six months before the elections actually start. That said, here are five candidates whose campaigns likely won't see 2016.

Rick Santorum is the poor man's Mike Huckabee, with half the likeability, a quarter of the charisma, and a tenth of the charm. His brief rise in 2012 was a combination of shrewd delegate strategy and being the most widely palatable "Not-Romney" still standing and was not indicative of any strength in his candidacy. After a dismal performance in the JV debates, and a sputtering campaign that's losing the evangelicals to Huckabee, Santorum won't be around much longer.

I legitimately had no idea who Jim Gilmore was until the day of the first debate, and I follow politics pretty closely. The former governor of Virginia who also apparently ran in 2008, Gilmore has possibly the lowest name ID of anyone running. Though that can change overnight (as Carly Fiorina's recent rise demonstrates), there's nothing that stands out about Gilmore to warrant his continued presence in the field.

Lindsey Graham is distinguished only by his single-minded and rabid war hawk stance, and is probably only running to try to drag foreign policy to the most invasive and militaristic place he can. Well, that and his seething hatred for fellow Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, whom he has clashed with frequently over the past several years. Most Republicans, in the primary season at least, are happy enough to beat the war drum on their own without Graham's urging. 

George Pataki, the former governor of New York, is essentially the same as Jim Gilmore, except he feels justified in swinging around 9/11 whenever he wants. In the same sense that Santorum is a poor man's Huckabee, Pataki is just the slightly slimmer version of Chris Christie. Like Gilmore, he brings nothing new to the table, and lacks the requisite charm and charisma to stick it out for another six months.

Rick Perry, another failed candidate from the last round famous for his live implosion on-air, is back again for some inexplicable reason. Perhaps buying into the belief that it's easier to get the nomination the second time around (just look at John McCain and Mitt Romney), he's back again, changing absolutely nothing from four years ago. He may be one of the first to go, as he's already stopped paying his staff in the early primary state of South Carolina.

To survive in this early primary season, candidates need money, strong grassroots support, or both. These five men have neither. 

Thoughts on Voters First Presidential Forum

The first quasi-debate for the increasingly crowded Republican field was held today. Some stray thoughts.

• Many candidates struggled to differentiate themselves sufficiently from the rest of the field. Whether it was Chris Christie trying to outhawk Lindsey Graham, or every governor trying to cement themselves as THE fiscal hawk, most of the candidates blended together into a homogeneous mass. 
• Those that did manage to separate themselves in some meaningful way from the pack saw the most success of the night. Rand Paul's emphasis on privacy (and a decidedly more dove approach to foreign policy than anyone else on the stage) and Scott Walker's focus on labor reform are two examples. 
• Many in the GOP field (such as Rick Perry or Rick Santorum) remain nominally dedicated to government restraint and economic growth, but advocate policies directly opposed to these goals, such as a series of complicated economic incentives with the purpose of revitalizing American manufacturing, or dramatically expanding American military presence overseas. 
• Most of the candidates didn't have a particularly polished stage presence, but had instead focused on memorizing statistics and being able to vomit them out as quickly as possible. 
• It was interesting to see many issues that Rand Paul originally championed coming to the discussion, namely criminal justice reform and the drug war.
• Based on tonight's performance, I would rank George Pataki, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich in the bottom three. None of the three seemed to connect well with the audience and frequently got lost in the weeds of their own discussion points. 

A real debate is coming up on August 6, and is sure to be much more chaotic than tonight's relatively ordered affair. 

Voters First Presidential Forum: LIVE

It's that magical time of year again: the Presidential Primary. Where my blood pressure spikes and I love/hate my life. Today, starting at 7:00 PM, we have the first vaguely debate-like thing. The Voters First Presidential Forum. Yeehaw.

6:55 PM - This college is pretty nice.
6:56 PM - I wonder why New Hampshire doesn't move their primary to before the Iowa Caucuses, then they could get even more unwarranted attention
6:57 PM - They're really adamant about this no applause thing.
6:59 PM - Rick Perry is wearing the most garish tie I have ever seen. And he keeps licking his lips.
7:00 PM - Am I crazy or are half the candidates not there? And no, I don't mean Trump and Huckabee.
7:01 PM - I feel bad for everyone just standing there, staring at the crowd, with nothing to do.
7:02 PM - I love that Rubio, Cruz, and Paul are off in their little satellite room, like they're in a time out.
7:03 PM - Oh sure, I'm sure it was drawn "randomly". Whatever you say, buddy.
People still care about immigration? This ought to be good.
7:04 PM - Rick Perry is up first. I feel like he got a speaking coach, I can actually understand what he's saying now, unlike the last time around.
7:05 PM - I think Rick Perry just came out in support of drone-defended borders.
7:06 PM - Rick Perry comparing visas to UPS, refuses to take stance on them.
7:07 PM - How does an economy have a "2% GDP"? Somehow Rick Perry made an economic question about education reform. "Regulations that drive the income tax down?"
7:08 PM - Rick Santorum rambling about "support" versus subsidies.
7:09 PM - He has now come out in support of higher taxes than Rand Paul, for some reason.
7:11 PM - The only way to create jobs, according to Santorum, is targeted tax breaks and increased manufacturing.
7:12 PM - Rick Santorum takes a parting blow at Mitt Romney. Four years too late.
7:13 PM - John Kasich comes out softer on immigration reform than both Perry and Santorum. Not firebranding it up.
7:14 PM - Kasich comes out in favor of a balanced budget, cites role in Ohio.
7:16 PM - Oh, and he also wrote the entire budget. Six times.
7:17 PM - Graham plans to "push back" against China, unfair trade practices. Comes out EXTREMELY hawkish, no surprise there.
7:18 PM - Wants to fight radical Islam with "whatever it takes" (Including trillions of dollars?)
7:19 PM - We're still riding on Reagan, apparently.
7:20 PM - He sees threats, everywhere. Needs more troops (despite America having more than anyone else in the world.)
7:21 PM - Chris Christie has lost a lot of weight. And gained a lot of war featheres.
7:22 PM - Christie comes out in support of raising the retirement age, advocates having "a plan"
7:23 PM - I think Christie wants to end the VA.
7:24 PM - I think I just see dollar signs pouring out of Christie's mouth every time he speaks.
Sees solution to drug war as more treatment, not an end to mandatory minimums.
7:25 PM - Ben Carson is sixth. I originally said fifth, but that's only because I forgot about Kasich.
7:26 PM - He sounds like he's constantly out of breath.
7:27 PM - He's mostly telling stories without any kind of policy proposals.
7:28 PM - And mostly entirely talking about health care. First laugh of the night by calling bureaucrats stupid.
7:29 PM - Comes out against Planned Parenthood funding.
7:30 PM - Cites God in his tax plan. Jeb Bush pops up.
7:31 PM - Jeb Bush currently trying to out-hawk Lindsey Graham, says America is not safe because of "tweets". Cites support for "strategy".
7:32 PM - Jeb Bush thinks engaging with the world solely involves air and military power.
7:33 PM - 2% growth is "anemic" according to Bush. Need "secure world" to grow economy, which can obviously only be accomplished through overseas adventurism.
7:34 PM - Heh, Bush just got cut the heck off. Carly Fiorina is up, advocates preserving the "status crow"
7:36 PM - I'm pretty sure she's just copying some weird combination of Jeb Bush and Rick Perry. Advocates spending less money, than proposes spending more money.
7:38 PM - First Hillary Clinton character slam of the night. Is it sexist they waited for another woman?
7:39 PM - Bobby Jindal comes out against hyphens, credits Bernie Sanders for coming out as socialist, claims that Clinton and Obama are "just as bad".
7:40 PM - Comes out in support of "doing".
7:41 PM - Unlike some opponents, is a fan of "math".
7:42 PM - Supports arming troops as well.
7:44 PM - Scott Walker supports balanced plan between economy, environmental issues.
7:46 PM - Tax plan doesn't involve cutting taxes, but "putting them back" to the states.
7:47 PM - Focuses on his strength in education and labor reform.
7:48 PM - Seriously, does anyone else not remember who George Pataki is?
7:49 PM - Cites "Obamacare" as a federal agency.
7:50 PM - Pulls a Santorum, supports an increase in American manufacturing.
7:51 PM - Claims we have the "best workforce" in the world, which is why there are much less manufacturing jobs in the country?
7:52 PM - Hot damn, someone I care about is talking. #StandWithRand
7:53 PM - Rand Paul correctly notes you can engage with the world in a way that doesn't involve bombs.

This is exhausting. I'm going to Twitter.

https://twitter.com/TylerGroenendal